Rotostyles Fantasy Baseball

2nd half fantasy baseball stars

2007-07-14T00:27:00.000-05:00

The position players for the second half:

Adam Laroche
Ryan Howard
Chase Utley
Garrett Atkins
Jeremy Hermida
Nick Markakis
Shane Victorino
Delmon Young
Michael Cuddyer
Joe Mauer

The pitchers for the second half:

Johan Santana
Felix Hernandez
Erik Bedard
Cole Hamels
Matt Garza
Joe Nathan
Frankie Rodriguez
Jake Peavy

Some of these guys are obvious, some not so obvious. I'm not psychic, nor am I a scout for the Yankees. Thank God for both. All I'm saying is these guys are gonna get a lotta play on my rosters. Maybe you want to steal an idea or two. There will be some studs from this group.

Some possible busts could be Braun, Pence, and Willits. Rookies have a tendancy to have a tale of two seasons. At least watch out for an extended slump or two from each. Big name busts - Arod (.280 w/ 40/15/45 is a BIG bust from here on out), Clemens (I'm telling you, and I've said it since Spring Training, this team is not making the playoffs), Jenks (was he on the all-star team, cmon), Haren (won't carry your team), Jimmy Rollins (I love this guy, but again, won't carry your team), Posada (even in the contract year) and Ordonez.

Anyway, we'll know in a few month if any of this should've helped. Good luck to all - enjoy the rest of the season.

PS
My playoff picks
Boston Red Sox
Cleveland Indians
Los Angeles Angels
Minnesota Twins

New York Mets
Milwaukee Brewers
San Diego Padres
Los Angeles Dodgers

It's going to be a fun October for you So-Calers. SI called it.

Imbalances and Opportunity

2007-06-02T10:24:00.000-05:00

Jonathan Papelbon is an excellent closer. No doubt. More than that - he is a starter that closes. This makes him so valuable in Rotohog.

But...
Kevin Gregg (also SP; RP) is excellent and always, unlike Pap, closes in save situations. (Manager appointed him closer - don't expect shaky Benetiz to take away his opps.)
Brad Hennessey is also a good pitcher, also qualifies at SP, and should also being seeing the opps in SF.

Why is Pap an $80 pitcher while Gregg and Hennessey go for $5 and $4 respectively? This is an imbalance. Imbalances mean opportunity.

Another...Dice-K will cost you $60 for his next start, Chris Young, who completely owns the Dodgers, and throws at pitcher friendly Petco next week, can be had for $24 2-DAY. There's an imbalance.

It's the marginal points that mean everything in fantasy baseball - any format of fantasy baseball. But the marginal points don't come from just high-priced players. The marginal points come from exploiting matchups and correcting imbalances.

Ps. One more for the road...Clemens (whom I don't own) will throw his second start going off at over $50. An easy chance to double your money.

Other roto leagues

2007-05-26T13:47:00.000-05:00

I realized something about Rotohog yesterday...

While I have been all about the main prizes ($100K), the best part of RH is the ability to have a completely fair league. It will eliminate all the usual crap I deal with from fantasy baseball.

I've been in a league for nearly a decade with some friends from college. There have been a number of rule changes because fairness constantly seems to be a problem. Right now, it's a 12 team keeper league (10 keepers, no restrictions). I don't really like trading with anyone ... everyone is trying to rip everyone else off. Next year, I think I'm going to suggest that we put the league into RH so we don't have to deal with it.

RH needs to add some functionality whereby we can pay our $250/team (that league is fairly steep, I know) into the system, and get paid (according to our own leagues payout schedule) easily. 5% off the top for running the baseball and running the money, would be fair.

Will RH eliminate sportsline, espn, and the rest when this functionality gets added. Maybe one day...but not soon. There is still very much a place for live drafts and human to human trading, not to mention private message boards with the kind of commentary not fit for public consumption. But for leagues that are just one big headache after the draft...move em to the hog.

A frustrating game

2007-05-20T17:48:00.000-05:00

Ohh, baseball is one frustrating game. Hit the ball hard 5 times and go 0-5. Dink three hits for a couple rbi's. A close call goes the wrong way which then opens the flood gates on you.

Fantasy baseball is similar. You knew the guy was going to have a good start...but you didn't start him. You knew your guy was about to slump...but you kept playing him anyway.

Don't get too upset with what you didn't do right. There's no time for that. Remember, "the triumphs in life are partly triumphs because you know that everything isn't going to be a triumph." Warren Buffett said that and it applies to just about every area of life. (even fantasy baseball)

Why we like to gamble

2007-05-15T17:52:00.000-05:00

Back in the day, and I mean waaayyy back in the day, the hunter who could guess where the herd was going to be could feed his family or his tribe. That made him a hero. When money got involved, it made him rich. That is why we like to gamble - it's hard wired into our DNA. (I'm no scientist and I shoot from the hip, so I don't actually know if this is hard-wired or what hard wired even means. :))

I am completely involved in the stock market and the above is the reason. But if there is one thing better than trying to guess what is going to happen in society, economics, company decisions, and with the influential few that dictate the stock market, it is trying to predict what will happen in baseball.

The stock market has rules and truisms and metrics. Baseball has 90 feet to first and just as many rules, truisms and metrics. Thanks to Rotohog for creating an egaging platform for my predictions.

I will make a prediction or calculate odds on just about anything. Doing it on the game I love is just more enjoyable. After all, a Torii Hunter diving grab and Joe Mauer 5-5 gets the juices flowing even more than Vasco Data Security blowing the number out on their latest quarterlies.

RSS Feeds?

2007-05-15T17:07:00.000-05:00

It appears you can actually go on vacation (well - a friends wedding with a few extra days in my hometown of Baltimore) and not dramatically lose position. You mean I don't actually have to make have a dozen moves everyday?? Apparently not.

One thing I would love to see - a few rss feeds. Leaderboard? Message Board? News?

What I would love to see...

2007-05-07T16:03:00.000-05:00

Most people know that "points per" is the measure of who is truly winning rotohog.

"Points per" inning and "points per" game.

Why? Because everyone will have 162 games at each position and everyone will have 1300 innings pitched. The difference is how you get there.

So I would love to see a "points per" leaderboard.
C- games/162 * points * 1/9
+
1b- games/162 * points * 1/9
+
etc
+
innings pitched/1300 * pitching points
=
"points per" leaders

What do you think?

On a different note ...
I changed all but four or five of my players on Sunday ... my largest single day overhaul to date. How great is a fantasy game where you can change your lineup so drastically. Wonderful.

Rotohog Pitchers for tomorrow - 5/7

2007-05-06T17:54:00.000-05:00

Myers
Oswalt
Saito
Ray
Benitez
& ????

Roger Clemens is Back

2007-05-06T15:26:00.000-05:00

But does it matter? Well sort of. Buy him today and you're going to make money in the Hog. He's going to shoot to $35 or $40 before people realize he won't be pitching for weeks.

Does it matter for the Yankees? It will probably get them a big ticket to ride in the Wild Card race. So yeah - it matters a lot. They are no longer going to finish third in the division.

Will he be the excellent baseball and fantasy pitcher he has been in the past? There's no reason to think not...

Tomorrow's studs ... Hafner, Roberts, and Bonds
And put it on your radar screen ... Ervin Santana has the best day of all starters on Tuesday

Fear and Greed move markets - even in fantasy baseball

2007-05-05T15:47:00.000-05:00

What is it that causes a player to move from $10 - $40 in just a few days?

It is, quite simply, demand outstripping supply in a big way. A frenzy.

What causes a frenzy? Long-term investors (buying for performance) and short-term speculators (buying to make a quick profit) both must own a given player at a given time.

Fear and greed dictate short-term moves in the stock market and in individual stocks. The fear component is not particularly relevant here because there is nothing really to lose. There is, therefore, just the greed. "I'm going to make money if I buy the guy right now" and/or "I gotta have this guy for this game."

That's what went on with JJ Hardy, Aaron Rowand, Ian Kinsler, and a few others. This phenomenon is only just beginning. The stars who don't perform and/or get hurt will decline slowly and steadily in value throughout the season. That money (and made money) will go into these mania type situations.

The way to play it - work the off day. A number of quality shortstops rested this past Thursday, opening the door for Hardy to spike. People see the spike and want to get in on it - furthering the issue.

Who's it going to happen to next? That's the $100K question. Look for the beginnings of a spike in closers Henry Owens and Rafael Soriano come Sunday night.

On the injury front, also keep an eye on Harden as he potentially returns this week.

How much is enough?

2007-05-04T12:42:00.000-05:00

Is it best to have more money than you could need in this game. I don't know, but I don't think so. Granted, you need a lot of money. Significantly more than the $275 you started with. But being able to buy whoever you want makes you buy based on names, not based on matchups. This game will be won by someone with both trading and fantasy baseball skills. Real fantasy baseball skills - not just knowing that Vlad is the impaler and A-Rod's having a career year. Too much money makes you lazy. It certainly makes you lazy in business, I'll bet it makes you lazy in the hog too.

Today's Value

2007-05-04T11:53:00.000-05:00

Good value for today

David DeJesus (5-11 against Verlander, hitting .345 at home, Verlander coming off a poor outing)

Omar Vizquel (a nice bounce back night last night, hitting .375 lifetime against Moyer)

Jason Kubel (.310 at home, 1-3 with a homer v. Wakefield, and you can put this guy in you U spot for a buck)

Another guy pretty much certain to make you money - Brett Myers
He's going to close in Philly, you can start him at SP, and he's got nasty stuff

Caveat: I'm starting all of these guys this evening
Good luck and a good fantasy night

Issues and dollar gains

2007-05-03T18:43:00.000-05:00

With Hardy up $14 and Myers up $8 - I feel pretty smart. (other than I didn't follow my own advice and was only holding Hardy) Makes me wonder how much participants who post about and talk up players - hello Apaca - can drive the market. Glad there's no Rotohog SEC.

I was unaffected by the roster problems today, but I agree with the poster who essentially said, "It's a free game for $100K - c'mon." This is also a Beta, and they are working through issues.

Participants should realize '07 football and '08 baseball are going to be big deals, and we have a leg up. Congrats to Rotohog and congrats to us. :)

Brett Myers

2007-05-02T22:13:00.000-05:00

Is Brett Myers the Philly closer? Well, no. But it's looking more and more like he will be. With his qualification at starter, this makes him a $40 rotohog player easily. Look for big spikes there soon.

Average to Elite, Elite to Super-Elite

2007-05-02T12:45:00.000-05:00

Ian Kinsler made so much money b/c he went from average to super elite. Guys make a ton of money when they move up classes. Rowand went from avg to elite. Who are going to be the next guys to move up classes? I think JJ Hardy and Josh Willingham are both overdue elites. (Hardy might be a super-elite.) And when are people going to realize that not only is Owens the closer in FL, but he is good and on a decent team??

Cramer Caveat: I own Hardy and Owens but not Willingham. Nor does my family own any, and I have no other conflicts. My firm does no investment banking or agent work for any of the above named players. (I watch a lot of CNBC)

Who are the real leaders

2007-05-02T12:35:00.000-05:00

I think it is the people who truly get that it is all about points per. Points per game is important, points per inning will make or break you. My feeling is if you do not realize that quality closers get you far more points per inning than starters - even the best starters - you are not actually in this thing. That is why I think someone whose team has already tossed 5-6-700 innings is irrelevant. They could shift to only closers right now and have a shot.

In addition, the real leaders have money. Not necessarily a grand, but $500 plus.

Here is who I think are the real leaders:
Bandos
Weiners
Apaca
Endangered Species
StLCards
Self Esteem
Yaz

I'd love to hear what other people think, who I'm leaving off, and why I'm wrong.

Friday Notes

2007-04-27T22:21:00.000-05:00

I finally gave up on Mariano tonight. Very disappointing. I kept telling myself, "Just get me one save. Just one, you bum. "Hideous. I think he netted me about 50 negative rotohog points before selling him. No plans to buy him back anytime soon. And I'm getting so annoyed with the Money Schooled team of late that I'm starting two SP's tomorrow just to make myself feel a little better (or a lot worse.)

But what I need to remember is that this game is just like the stock market. If you let fear and greed play you, you will lose. Or as Jim Cramer would say, "Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered." I have a sound strategy, it has worked to large degree so far, and I plan to be still writing on this blog come September.

Speaking of strategy, I'm wondering to myself, "If my team is only worth about $600, I'm right on pace with position players and innings, and I'm in 139th place, am I still in this thing?" And when I say, "in this thing" I mean a shot at $100K.

I am, but there are a number of people ahead of me who have incredibly impressive teams and seem to know what they are doing. I'll elaborate this weekend.

Rotohog

2007-04-26T09:51:00.000-05:00

I'm spending enough time with Rotohog that I might as well blog about it. This is the ultimate in fantasy sports. Players can be traded in real time. There are many other features that make the game excellent, but they generally revolve around the ability to trade - just like a stock market - and acquire whatever players you want for your team. Assuming, of course, you have the cash to do so.

There is only one set of athletes for every 12 participants, so supply is limited. This creates some interesting bubbles in certain players. There are a myriad of rules, just like with any fantasy sports game. Considering the winner takes home $100K, they are worth knowing.

The most important are the players limits. 162 games at each position and 1300 total innings for 6 pitcher spots. (2 starters, 2 relievers, 2 any) Everything is about maximizing your points per.

There have energed two classes of participants. Those who spend the time, and those who don't. To win the overall prize, a great deal of time will be required. My biggest fear - I spend the time and take 11th place. (Out of the money) That will not make me happy. Considering how much fun the game is, and how much strategy gets to be played out, I think it's worth it. We'll see.

There is an element of trading ability and a larger element of fantasy sports in the game. And you need clear skills in both to win. This game, it is my suspicion, will not be for the faint of heart.

I've been playing fantasy sports for about a decade and have had multiple teams every year (this year I have 6), but have never been so involved as to start blogging about it. That speaks volumes, I believe, about Rotohog.

MLB and Fantasy

2006-04-07T18:30:00.000-05:00

Rotostyles Fantasy Baseball

We have a slightly more important issue to discuss than chris shelton's hot start, manny's multi-color hair, or nick johnson's disgusting mustache. The issue is freedom. MLB is going up against the fantasy trade organization. MLB is suing, claiming that any site who makes money by using the names of players must pay to license the names. This will eliminate the small sites who cannot aford to pay the license. The big boys - sportsline, espn and others will be able to pay the fee. Therefore the rich will get richer and the poor will get poorer. Isn't that baseball ... Isn't that America. Yeah, it is, but that is horrible inequality. What about sites like www.mockdraftcentral.com? www.cdmsports.com? All the others who may not be able to pay the fee but provide a service we love?

Besides, the newspapers don't pay a royalty fee to put boxscores in the paper. MLB likes it because it encourages the success of the sport. And it sells papers. Fantasy sports has helped make baseball. It contributes quite positively to the sport. I'm a die-hard. I've got six teams this season. I spend a small fortune on tickets, merchandise, and information. I bought the package. My money will consider walking if mlb wins this suit. I encourage your comments.

Rotostyles 2006 predictions

2006-03-31T11:59:00.000-06:00

Welcome to the rotostyles blog.

I'm going to start with general baseball predictions, as that as some bearing on fantasy. Also I love to be right.

AL EAST: NYY - the all nursing home team takes the cake behind good pitching (watch for a Mussina resurgance) and an open wallet. They will purchase hole-fillers as needed. Toronto is solid, but will finish behind Boston, followed by Baltimore and then the pathetic pitching Devil Rays.

AL CENTRAL: CWS - they are strong. Very well rounded. The Indians have the offense and not the staff, the Twins have the staff and not the offense. They finish 2-3 and both miss the playoffs. Detroit gets fourth and Kansas City stinks it up and finishes last.

AL WEST: OAK - only Zito remains from the old big three, but Harden, Haren, Blanton and Loiza makes for a solid rotation. They win it with the Los Angelos Angels of Anaheim (is that their name?) nipping at their heels. An exciting division that also produces the wild card. Seattle and Texas both have big holes.

AL Awards -
MVP: Vladdy carries the Angels on his back, sneaks them into the playoffs, and takes the MVP
CY: Rich Harden shows you how good he really is, beats out Johan
ROY: Ian Kinsler puts up excellent numbers and beats out Kenji Johjima
Most Wins: Mussina wins 20 for the first time in his career tying Johan at 21
Most Saves: In order: Rivera, Street, K-Rod, Ryan and Wickman
Most Hr's: Tex just tops Papi and A-Rod.
Most Sb's: In order: Figgins, Crawford, Gathright, and Podsednick
Batting Title: Ichiro stops trying to hit so many hr's and hits .345, just over A-Rod and VMart.

NL EAST: ATL - They could sign my grandma and take this division. The Phillies and Mets have a hell of a battle for second place and the wild card, but when Houston slips in and takes it again, who ultimately cares who is the runner-up to the Braves is. (It's the Mets but it doesn't matter.)

NL CENTRAL: STL, HOU, MLW, CHN, CIN, PIT. The Brew crew slowly creeping up this division is the only thing that makes it interesting. Maybe the Cards can stop embarrassing themselves in the playoffs.

NL WEST: This division is horrible. The Giants will win it with a near .500 record, followed by SD, LA, ARZ, and COL. Eww.

NL Awards -
MVP: Andruw proves it was no fluke. Takes home the hardware.
CY: Oswalt wins 20 again, finally gets his due.
ROY: Matt Cain helps the Giants into the playoffs and edges out Prince Fielder.
Most Wins: Oswalt, Timmy Hudson, and Carpenter all get 20 on the nose.
Most Saves: In order: Izzy, Lidge, Wagner, Turnbow, Cordero and Valverde
Most Hr's: Andruw - again.
Most Sb's: In order: Reyes, Pierre, then alsorans Tavares, Rickie Weeks and Freel.
Batting Title: Pujols handily over D. Lee and D. Wright.

AS FOR THE ROTOSTYLES Players:

Biggest Profits:
C - Victor Martinez: you pay the most and he still nets biggest profit. This guy is sick.
1B - Ryan Howard, Justin Morneau and Dan Johnson
2B - Kinsler and Weeks spark the youth movement
3B - Wright is expensive, Mora is moderate, and Andy Marte and Atkins are cheap.
SS - Bobby Crosby and JJ Hardy make you look smart.
OF - Gomes, Lane, DeJesus, and Milton Bradley all earn big profits
SP - Harden, Rodrigo Lopez, Haren, Cain, Gavin Floyd, and Mussina.
RP - Burgos holds the job all year, Linebrink, Borowski, and Rafael Soriano.

Best Sleepers: Gomes, Lane, DeJesus, Gavin Floyd, Adam Laroche, Garrett Atkins, Mark Ellis, Fernando Cabrera, and Ian Kinsler.

The Busts: Piazza, Erstad, Polanco, Brian Roberts, Beltre - again, Glaus, Furcal, Rowand, Carlos Lee, Damon, Edmonds, Garland, Lackey, Millwood, Eaton, Mulder, Guardado, Cordero, Benitez, and Flash.